The nation had entered into an election mood. For the next 40 days, political leaders, opinion makers, intellectuals and all will dish out their opinions, commentaries, wish lists and ‘predictions’. Ordinary men and women will be deluged with all kinds of propaganda materials to catch their attention and swing their opinions.
Many amongst us may be resigned to the fact that politicians of all hues are making huge noises and grandeur promises without being result oriented. Why are they doing so? Are they really fooling the electorate or just play according to the rules of the game? Let us examine the election propaganda using some tools of behavioral science.
a) Recency bias-
This is one of the cognitive biases which are well exploited by Politicians all over the world. We, the common man always over-emphasis things which happened in the near past and under-appreciated things that happened long back. In practice, people remember the good or bad things done by a politician/incumbent government in the recent past. That is the reason why we see a flurry of inaugurations, stone laying, etc. Due to this bias, we tempted to support the leader who does maximum (good) things in the last few months than the one who did much better, but in earlier years.
Next time, when you see a ‘Neta’ does some inauguration or stone laying just before an election, don’t blame him. Just blame ourselves, as we all have a short memory and hence we will appreciate his good work (and vote him) only if it was done in the recent past.
This is the same reason why the Election Commission is imposing Model code of conduct so that voters won’t fall into the trap of this Recency bias. But our smarter Netas does inauguration just before Model Code come in to force.
b) Barbarians at gates syndrome-
Many voters are vulnerable to this syndrome and then fail to make an intelligent choice. They are fed with an idea that every effort must be done to defeat the opponents who are portrayed as ‘barbarians’ and hence any kind of alternative is better. When this syndrome captures one's imagination, one will tempt to go any extent to prevent any victory for his opponents. People, in this case, are ready to ally/ vote for anyone whom they believe can defeat the ‘barbarians’.
It is one of the best strategies to win the election as not much effort is required to put up an alternate plan and vision. Just create an impression that if you don’t vote to us, worst is waiting for you. It prevents our ability to think and our mental faculties are suppressed by this ‘fear of barbarians’.
In this election, the very strategy of ‘Mahagadbandhan’ and Congress is this only. If Modi comes again, they say, India will turn in to a Fascist state, Hindu rastra will be established, minorities will be driven away, etc. On the other hand, BJP would say, if not Modi, it is chaos and Nation will become a banana republic, so vote for us.
Fear is one of the primary driving forces for human initiatives. Our animalistic instinct will alert our brain about any impending threats to our life and limbs more quickly than any positive thoughts. Hence, don’t just blame our leaders. It is the way our human brains are wired.
c) Familiarisation bias –
Ever wondered why our candidates try to reach each lane and by-lanes of our residential area and roaming around public places and speak boring, same old kinds of stuff. Why he simply can’t send a letter to us and we can read about his ideas and program? The truth is that he wants to make sure that he meets the maximum possible number of people and as many people can see his face.
Voting preference of an average voter is highly influenced by the familiarity factor. Given a choice between two individuals, whose policies and ideas don’t make much sense to him; an average voter prefers a familiar face which he encountered at least once in front of his house.
d) Social proof- Why a leader organize mammoth rallies?
An average voter is not an isolated, unconnected individual and his political choices are always influenced by the opinions and choices of those nearby. Hence he would always try to ensure that as many people support a party which he supports. Most likely, he would also support a party/ candidate whom others would support in large number.
Political parties are aware of this psychological phenomenon and that is why they are organizing huge rallies and road shows. They are trying to bring maximum people together to assure each of them to see that there are many alike so that every body’s beliefs are reinforced and strengthened. We all are hungry for social approvals and wish to be an ‘included’ than being left alone.
e) Halo effect-
Again, it is one of the shortcuts used by our brain to judge and evaluate a person. Leaders who want to get popular support take special care to see that they are always viewed by the people in a positive way. Intelligent leaders are very much bothered about the way in which they dress, body language, facial expression etc.
Ordinary people many times, won’t understand many of the policies of a particular leader, but they trust, support and vote him based on the ‘halo’ created around him over a period of time.
This list is not exhaustive, but just an indicative one. As voters and human beings, our rationality is not absolute and what we have is ‘Bounded rationality’. No voter in this earth can calculate the impacts of all the policies of a leader and find whether those policies are beneficial or not. We have limited computational capacity, limited attention span, and biased reasoning. Hence the idea of ‘rational electoral choice’ is nothing but a myth.
Given these circumstances, our voting preferences are based on our cognitive biases and mental shortcuts we often use in expressing our political preferences. Hence, leaders and parties who can play with our biases and preferences will be able to muster maximum popular support.
Winning an election is a mental game. It’s about putting across new narratives, catchy slogans, and emotional appeals. Voters can be easily manipulated, cajoled, threatened by intelligent propaganda and communication strategies.
No voter would admit that he can be manipulated easily and he sincerely believes that his political preferences are based on rationality. Yet the truth is that most of us are unaware of our vulnerabilities and limitations. Hence, our Netas are not capitalizing our ignorance per se, but they are making use of our ignorance about our being ignorant.
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